Mike Chen's Hockey Blog: June 2007

Mike Chen's Hockey Blog

Friday, June 29, 2007

Am I the only one who feels this way?

If I'm commissioner Gary Bettman and I really want to make a splash that would have corporate sponsors up the wazoo, glitzy celebs, and tons of publicity, I say goodbye to the Crackberries in Hamilton and the free leases in Kansas City, grab my buddy Bill Daly and hit the road for one place...

Vegas, baby!

People are talking about the relocation of the Nashville Predators on an individual market basis, but wouldn't being the first pro sports team in Vegas do something for both the league and the franchise? Vegas is half-filled with out-of-towners looking for something to do 24/7 and millions going to industry conventions every year -- not to mention casions run like corporations that'd more than likely invest in suites -- wouldn't that be a good thing? Especially if you relocate with a winning team right away that plays exciting hockey.
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Daniel Briere: What a difference a year makes

It sounds like Daniel Briere is turning down a roughly 5-year, $25 million offer to remain as captain of the Sabres. Let's all flashback to just about a year ago when Briere was prepared to go to arbitration with the Sabres...

From our friends at Sabre Rattling:

My hope that Darth Regier and Cap’n Danny would come to terms on a long-term (read 3 to 4 year) contract before his hearing with a 3rd party arbitrator is fading fast. Al Strachan is thinking Briere could get Havlat-esque money in today’s hearing. I think Strachan’s a drunk moron.

Most probably Danny will get a 1 year deal worth between 3.5 and 4.25 million and Regier will consider shopping him at the deadline to recoup something for their effort.

And the result from TSN:

Buffalo Sabres star Daniel Briere has been awarded a one year, $5 million settlement through arbitration.

The two sides had been trying to work out a long term deal, but were unable to reach an accord before the arbitrator's ruling. The contracts signed by Martin Havlat, Marian Gaborik and Alex Tanguay were apparently used as benchmarks in this case.

Well, crap, Briere wanted $5 million a year before unrestricted free agency, and now that freedom looms, he's going to get a crapload more on the open market. In fact, Briere should easily pull in $6 million, if not up to $7 million should some GM decide to go nuts (as has been prone to happen come July 1).

So is Briere just that much more awesome this year than what he was a year ago? Of course not. His points-per-game is comparable; however, in the 05-06 season, he was injured for about half of it, and the question came up about his overall durability. Now that he's proved that, his value goes up.

In some ways, I feel for Darcy Regier. Last year, he was kinda trapped -- if he caved in and gave Briere the long-term $5 million/season deal his co-captain wanted, he would have been criticized for overpaying a guy coming off a huge injury problem and never eclipsing the point-per-game mark. Of course, now Regier looks like an idiot because Briere played to that level for a full season and now the Sabres can't afford him.

Where's Doc Brown and that time machine when you need it?

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Wednesday, June 27, 2007

How durable is Ryan Smyth?

TSN's Darren Dreger reported on some rumors that New York Islanders might try and continue their track record of long-term deals with a seven- or eight- year contract offer to Ryan Smyth (though I suppose that's a short-term deal for Charles Wang & company).

Look, I understand why Ryan Smyth is such a hot commodity this free agent season. Here's a proven leader, gritty, tough, great shot, and willing to take a ton of punishment to put the puck in the net. Those aren't traits you get with just any player, let alone a skill player like Smyth. But here's the other thing -- Smyth is 31 right now. Let's assume the Islanders sign Smyth to a seven year deal with a $6 million average. So, at age 38, Ryan Smyth's body will have endured seven more years of cross-checks, grinding, and battles in the slow...all while costing a cap hit of $6 million.

Am I the only one questioning the logic of that? If Smyth's game wasn't so physically demanding--and if he'd consistently scored more than 40 goals (36, 36, 23, 27 in the past four seasons)--then maybe I'd see the rational behind it, but to me this just looks like another Charles Wang big-splash move.

I have nothing against Ryan Smyth -- in fact, I'd love for the Sharks to sign him. I just imagine that his game will hit a pretty harsh wall when there'd be several years left on that term. I could be wrong and Smyth could have a body of steel, but I wouldn't sign anyone to more than four or five years max (*cough cough* Craig Rivet for four years?) unless they were under the age of 27.

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Saturday, June 23, 2007

A little Florida Panthers math...

For any chemistry/physics/math nerds out there, I've summed up the Florida Panthers past two seasons using a variation of Factor Label Method. Unfortunately, Blogger keeps screwing up the graphic so you'll have to view the direct equation here.

If I was summarizing my calculation on a test answer, I'd say that ultimately when the assets cancel out, the Panthers lost a 1st, 2nd, and 2nd round picks to get Tomas Vokoun, Bryan Allen, conditional picks, $1 million extra in cap space, and they got rid of Mike Keenan. In other words, the chain reaction set off by losing Luongo wasn't necessarily too bad. Anyways, if you took chemistry or physics in high school or college, check it out, you might get a laugh out of it.

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Friday, June 22, 2007

Scorched earth

Holy crap...

The Nashville Predators have traded goaltender Tomas Vokoun to the Florida Panthers for a first-round pick and two second-round picks.
Nashville fans, you guys have my sympathies. This is totally playing out like Major League. Where's Pedro Cerrano when you need him?

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Live blogging the draft...

...well, I won't personally be live blogging the draft, but you should check out The Battle of New York. Steve, the blog's resident Devils fan, will be starting up around 3:30 PST/6:30 EST and going on through the draft. Here's a picture of Steve hard at work:

And for all your Columbus-related draft news, including info for anyone who's going to Nationwide Arena tonight, be sure to visit Army of Ohio's draft coverage and info on the place to be at 4:30 EST if you want to meet some pretty cool hockey fans.
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Thursday, June 21, 2007

Cheechoo says, "Whoops!"

Jonathan Cheechoo can't be a happy camper with the way forwards are getting paid these days. In the middle of the 2005-06 campaign, Cheechoo signed a five-year extension worth $15 mil, or average $3 mil per season. In his past three seasons, he's had 28, 56, and 37 goals. Pretty darn reliable, huh? Breaking that down, that's 121 goals in 269 games = .44 goals per game. More specifically, the Sharks are paying Cheechoo $3 million a season to score at a pace of .44 goals per game. Let's compare with some of the other folks who've signed recently:

Scott Hartnell
Past three seasons 65 goals in 204 games
.32 goals per game = $4.2 mil per season

Scott Walker
Past three seasons 51 goals in 189 games
.27 goals per game = $2.5 mil per season

Nathan Horton
Past three seasons 72 goals in 208 games
.35 goals per game = $4 mil per season

Shane Doan
Past three seasons 84 goals in 234 games
.36 goals per game = $4.55 mil per season

And for posterity's sake, let's look at some of the guys who are already getting paid more than Cheechoo:

Brian Gionta
Past three seasons 94 goals in 219 games
.43 goals per game = $4 mil per season

Miroslav Satan
Past three seasons 91 goals in 245 games
.37 goals per game = $4.25 mil per season

Simon Gagne
Past three seasons 112 goals in 228 games
.49 goals per game = $5.25 mil per season

Erik Cole
Past three seasons 77 goals in 211 games
.36 goals per game = $4 mil per season

Now granted, Cheechoo signed before he hit 56 goals (I believe he was around the 30 mark if memory serves me correctly) and other stuff like age and injuries comes into play, but still...even before he broke the 50 goal barrier, Cheechoo should have been able to command about $4 million considering his age and durability. I'd say true value right now would be $4.75 per season, but hindsight's 20/20. Even still, if I'm Cheechoo and I know I can score on average 30-40 goals per season during these negotiations back in 05-06, I'm firing my agent.

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Monday, June 18, 2007

Quick non-hockey note

Just a quick non-hockey request for readers out there: if there's anyone reading with ANY experience in the publishing industry (editor, agent, acquisitions person, etc.), I'd really like to pick your brain, so please contact me. Thanks!

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Doug Wilson interview transcript

Update: Fox Sports article is up.

My Fox Sports article based on this transcript should be up sometime Monday morning. In the meantime, here's the full transcript of my 20+ minute interview the Sharks GM Doug Wilson based on questions from readers. I'll say this -- Doug has a consistent message across all his interviews, and this basically just captures all of that in a little more thorough form. In other words, if you've read or listened to him in the past month, you've heard a lot of this before, even when the questions were presented uniquely. Still, there's definitely some interesting nuggets in there and the one thing that Sharks fans can take from this is that he's not walking away from the whole "mental toughness" issue. Whether or not they can execute properly remains to be seen, but recognizing a problem is the first step to solving it. Questions are italicized, answers are normal font.

As one fan put it, the most frustrating aspect of this year's collapse was that it was yet another squandered lead and blown opportunity. In your opinion, why have the Sharks not been able to build on their success the way the Ducks and Senators did?

That is a question that has been asked many times and I go down to the resiliency factor. You talk about Anaheim and it’s interesting…they lose Game 3 5-0 in their own building, they lose Chris Pronger yet the come back the next game and play one of their best games. Certainly Ottawa did it against Buffalo and earlier on in the series, so there’s something about the belief system in what you do and how you play and you don’t waver from that. There’s a conviction in that. I do think that we’ve played that way throughout the year and maybe some of these flaws were hidden because games that we won because of our power play and our goaltending. It’s an area we’ve addressed; forget about personnel changes on that issue, we have to be more efficient in how we play at certain times of the game. You watch Anaheim and they won games in different ways in the playoffs and you have to have that balance that you can play aggressive, protect the lead, defend in your own zone, but you don’t do any of them in a tentative way. You can play smart assertive hockey and protect the lead, you don’t have to be tentative. There’s a couple of times where we got tentative and you will not win that way. And that was something we’ve certainly talked about at length at the end of the year.

Mental toughness is another hot topic with media and fans. What's your approach to building team mental toughness for next season?

Well, mental toughness is sometimes how you handle adversity and challenges and I use the term “resilience.” Do you go back and fold or do you go back and do you believe in what you’re doing and stay assertive? We have players who’ve shown that but it’s also contagious—you see teams that stop making plays or stop making the right choices defensively. When we’re playing well we are aggressive, there’s no hesitation to our game. First of all you have to identify that it happened and agree that it happened, I think Ottawa did that prior to this year’s playoffs. During the season, you can’t just turn this on and off, it has to be habitual. Every game, every day, you can’t just say, well, when it comes to playoff time we’ll turn something on. How you practice, how you play, how you handle one-goal leads or two-goal leads in the regular season has to be done in a real efficient manner that the teams made it to the finals did better than us. We will address it.

A lot of fans and media are questioning whether or not Ron Wilson is still the right coach to lead this team. Can you tell them why you still believe he is?

Well, we reviewed everything at the end of the year. If you’re not willing to adjust or tweak or change, then you’re not willing to grow and I view that as all of us. You can learn by what works in this league and what doesn’t and the ability to look at things that we’ve got to make better and we do that collectively. Ron has got a bright hockey mind and he works hard, he loves the game. There are some things that he will say he wants to do differently but his passion and his knowledge for what we want to accomplish as an organization, he’s committed to doing it so we think as a group we think we all have to get better, whether it’s the GM, coaches or players and we accept that challenge and he certainly did.

You've mentioned that you'd like the goalie situation cleared up by training camp. Without going into too many specifics, how do you approach who to keep and who to move since they've both played so well?

Well, they are both very healthy and true #1s and that’s what we’ve tried to accomplish the past 12 months and that’s get into a position, one, have two goaltenders, I think was necessary for us, and certainly Carolina wouldn’t have won a Stanley Cup without two goalies. I told them a year ago that we would take this approach but I did promise them after this season that we would move one of them and declare one them as the #1 goalie moving forward in fairness to them, and they accepted that.

When you’re trying to determine who you’re going to keep, are you just going to look at who generates the best offer possible or do things such as injury history, salary cap concerns, future salary cap concerns, any of that come into play?

Without going into the details of it, we’re trying to win Stanley Cups. Our view will be based on several factors but ultimately it will be what helps this team win a Stanley Cup. And that’s the deciding factor for us.

Assuming one goalie is moved, who will be stepping into the backup position?

We’re fortunate that we’ve got some outstanding goaltenders already in the system. Dmitri Patzold, Tomas Greiss did a really good job in Worcester this year. Warren Strelow did a wonderful job in the brief time we had him this past year to get them going down the path. We feel we’re very blessed with goaltenders from top to bottom.

One constant criticism by fans and media was the inexperienced blueline last season. The Rivet trade seemed to confirm that, and one fan wants to know why it took to near the trade deadline to act upon it rather than addressing it prior to the season’s start.

It’s interesting that you say inexperience because our best defenseman in the playoffs was our youngest: Marc-Edouard Vlasic. So I think if we’d addressed that, we wouldn’t have the growth of Marc-Edouard Vlasic. And it does take two to tango, did we pursue other defnemen, yes we did. When Craig Rivet came here, he integrated in very easily and played very well. I understand when people look at age but after the trade deadline, Ottawa and Buffalo were both younger than us.

You've said that the coaches admitted that they could so some things better. In your mind, what are the main things that you feel they will do better next year?

The execution of the things we want done as an organization and when I say the coaches, we all do it together. GMs, coaches, players, so I’m not going to just identify that one group has to do things differently and the others don’t. The execution of how we play, you can’t be really efficient and detailed one night and not the next night because it does have to be ingrained in you to do things the right way so that when you get fatigued or stressed or whatever, your flaws (are overcome). We might tweak how we play a little bit on some things on the ice but not a major change. We’ve seen things that teams have been effective under these new rules have applied. Without going into the nuances of it, there’s some little adjustments that we will be making and demanding that the team will be adhering to the whole year, not just come playoff time.

Mark Bell and Steve Bernier both had disappointing seasons, Bell in particular. What do you feel their upsides are and where do you see the roles with the team in the upcoming season?

Well, Steve Bernier’s a young player who I feel’s going to be a dominant player in this league. He played really well a year before, had a little bump this year, but I certainly think that he’ll be better this year. Mark Bell, by his own admission, got off on the wrong foot, had an issue that was dealt with and had several injuries and did not get his game back on track, and that happens sometimes. He’s also a player that several years back scored 28 goals in Chicago. He’s a big physical kid that has the makings of a very good hockey player and his best years are ahead of him too. It was just a tough year for him and he’s the first one to admit it. But he’s also the type of guy that can be pretty important during playoff time.

Coach Wilson has often mentioned that the strategy is to "play our game". Do you feel like teams like Detroit and Ottawa advanced farther because they could adapt better, and if so, how do you implement this adaptability?

Well, as our friends in Anaheim have often said, you may have to play four different styles to win a Stanley Cup, you play against four different types of teams. You have to be able to adjust. You have to play different styles whether you have injuries or fatigue or whatever it may be, protecting a lead or going down a goal. We think we have that ability but did we execute it as well as other teams? No. You can’t just say that you’re going to play one style, adjustments are part of this game, and we have to continue to do that. You can’t just be a one-dimensional team.

What up-and-coming young prospects do you envision competing for spots in training camp? Do you see anyone comparable to Marc-Edouard Vlasic in terms of impact?

We’ve got a group of players and I don’t want wanna, I’m not going to limit it to a few guys. There’s a guy, Devin Setoguchi who had an outstanding year the last half of junior last year. We’ve got Torrey Mitchell, Lukas Kaspar, Ty Wishart, we’ve got a group of players that I think…I never say never because when we came into camp, who would have thought that Marc-Edouard Vlasic would have come in and had the impact that he did. We will have somebody come into camp and force his way on to this team solely on merit and solely on what he gets done on the ice because we are open to that. The best players will play, that’s always been our philosophy the past few years.

Billy Beane of the Oakland A's once stated that building for the regular season is possible but building for the post-season is a crapshoot. With so much parity in the NHL, do you think this applies to the Stanley Cup playoffs?

I don’t know, baseball and hockey I think are different. I certainly respect Billy Beane and respect what he’s done with the Oakland A’s. We know the teams we’re going to play in the West and it’s tough, it’s a fine line from top to bottom. We finished with 107 points and finished in fifth place. But there’s not really an unexpected what you’re going to see in the playoffs other than you’re going to have to play three different types of teams before you even get to the final. You have to know the teams you’re going to play. You have to execute better, you have to have the fortune of good health and you have to find a way to get things done, and I’ll finish with a big word: you have to be resilient. Something bad happens you gotta forget about it and you move forward. For our team, (resiliency) certainly is (a theme) at this point. You learn that through tough times and tough lessons, I guess, and hopefully we’re done learning from our tough lessons.

Ron Wilson's sometimes used the media to publicly call out players for their performance. Are you concerned that this approach isn't producing the right response with the players?

Hey, we’re all big boys here. Some of the great coaches challenge players. What you want to know is that you’re challenging players to be better and to get to the ultimate goal of winning the cup. Having said that, the relationship and trust amongst people in the dressing room, that is something that is obviously crucial to our success, and I think that players understand if they’re playing hard and playing well, they’re going to get lots of ice time and that’s how a coach truly rewards a player. You go back to Vinnie Lecavalier and John Tortorella, Hitch and Mike Modano, there’s moments that they challenge each other, but you know what? They grew together and won Stanley Cups together. It’s healthy and it’s how it’s responded to and where you go from being challenged and that you do have a mutual goal here.

Ron Wilson's been known to juggle lines quite a bit. Do you favor that approach or would you like to see your combinations be more settled?

Well, I think a lot of times is that a lot of nights, you need different things. We’ve got a lot of good hockey players here who interact with each other. You also have to assume that sometimes during the playoffs that either through injuries or penalties or suspensions or whatever, you have to be prepared that somebody does have to play with somebody else. Is it easier with set lines? Probably, that would just make sense. But on different nights, you just need different things. We’ve had pretty good success in the past three seasons. I think we’re in the top five in wins and points in the past three years, and I think we’ve played seven playoff series in the past three seasons, so there’s a lot of success that has taken place. But again, we haven’t won the Cup yet, when people say we certainly haven’t overachieved, I guess we haven’t achieved our ultimate goal, but some good things have happened under Ronnie as our coach.

Your top four forwards look like they'll be Thornton, Marleau, Cheechoo, and Michalek. Who do you see contending for the last two spots on the top two lines?

Well, that’s…we’ve got some pretty good players. I think Stevie Bernier thinks he belongs up there, Mike Grier’s very versatile, he can play up and back. Ryane Clowe played very well, Devin Setoguchi’s probably going to tell you that he’s gonna come in and try and take one of those spots. We think we’re pretty deep in forward. Marcel Goc’s played well for us, Mark Bell back at the top of his game is certainly a top-nine forward, so we have considerable depth up there. And we can be a four-line team, Joe Pavelski’s played well, we’ve got a lot of guys that can go up in roles because they’re not just a one-dimensional player and they have additional offense—when they go up on the top two lines, they support that with their statistics this year.

There've been reports that you've spoken with Joe Thornton about a contract extension. Is there anyone else you've targeted for an extension (if you can talk about it).

I don’t really talk about negotiations publicly but I’ve talked with many of the agents and I’m continuing down that path. You try to be pro-active, and you try to do things that work for both the player and the club and the team to keep this group together because we feel we’re coming into our prime as an organization and as a team.

A popular what-if scenario among fans is Scott Niedermayer. It's pure speculation at this point, but if you were successful in courting Scott Niedermayer after the lockout, do you think the Joe Thornton deal would have still been possible?

Boy, that’s a great question. I wish I’d have the ability to answer that question. The only blame I have in Scott Niedermayer is that he didn’t have more brothers. That’s…I will say this: quite possibly.

If you could sum up your approach to next season in one word, what would it be?

(long pause) I can’t do it in one word. I’d say get ready to play, the resiliency will be there. We will get that done.

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Saturday, June 16, 2007

All together now: we suck!

People don't care about Chris Pronger or Tim Duncan, apparently. From the AP:

The NBA finals were a television bust. San Antonio's four-game sweep of Cleveland finished with a record-low 6.2 television rating and 11 share on ABC, Nielsen Media Research said Friday.

That was down 27 percent from the 8.5/15 for Miami's six-game victory over Dallas last year and 5 percent under the previous low, a 6.5/12 for San Antonio's six-game win over New Jersey in 2003. The NBA finals averaged 9.3 million viewers this year.

San Antonio's series-winning 83-82 victory on Thursday night got a 6.5/12, down 17 percent from the 7.8/14 for Game 4 last year.

The NHL Stanley Cup finals also hit a record low this year, with NBC averaging a 1.6/3 for the final three games of Anaheim's five-game victory over Ottawa. The first two games were televised on the cable network Versus.

So I guess Gary Bettman and David Stern have something to discuss over morning coffee, huh?

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Friday, June 15, 2007

Another take on the Keenan fiasco

I think Bob McKenzie of TSN puts it all in the right perspective:

Some people in other places might say that Keenan has been more destructive than constructive but this guy can coach. He just needs to go in and coach and not try to pull the 'Iron Mike' thing and start wanting to fire all the trainers and change everything.

It's a hefty gamble, because despite the relationship between Sutter and Keenan, Keenan's got a pretty solid track record of being power hungry. It's either going to be a raging success (Keenan focuses on his role and that's it) or an unmitigated disaster (players hate him and Sutter can't control him); I don't see it happening any either way.

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Thursday, June 14, 2007

Crackberry, indeed

James Mirtle scanned in the ad soliciting for Hamilton Predators season tickets from today's Globe & Mail. A lot's already been said about Blackberry founder Jim Balsillie, but for the life of me, I can't figure him out.

One part of me says that the brash and just-a-tad-wacky maybe-owner of the Nashville Predators is kinda like the owner in Major League. Say screw you to the Nashville fans with blatant middle finger in a prominent Canadian paper, then watch as the lame duck team scares away disgruntled fans. Maybe Balsillie thinks that he will get enough support from traditionalists on the NHL Board of Governors (who have to approve the sale, unless I'm mistaken about the process) that they'll want a renegade who's willing to put a stomp on Nashville and do a cut-and-paste over to Hamilton.

The other part of me thinks of Luke Skywalker telling Emperor Palpatine, "Your overconfidence is your weakness." Wouldn't the smart thing be to solicit this data AFTER the sale of the franchise is done? That way, Balsillie can point to the sales numbers, jump up and down and yell about how it's a great market. Never mind the fact that Bettman, Daly, and co. would much rather have Kansas City or Las Vegas (it doesn't take a genius to see that Vegas corporate sponsorship, with so many business travelers coming in and out of town, would be through the roof). What Balsillie is doing here is probably pissing off a good segment of the Board of Governors. Think of it this way:

1) The "progressive" Board members probably want to see someone consider all relocation possibilities as well as the potential for long-term survival of a franchise in Nashville.
2) The "traditional" Board members who don't want some arrogant hotshot to come in and tell them how the show's going to be run.

This whole thing is going to turn into one ridiculous sideshow, and I feel pretty bad for the Nashville die-hards who have to watch their team be ping-ponged around in a political tug-of-war. A word to the wise, Mr. Balsillie -- sometimes, subtlety is the best approach. Of course, he's a billionaire and I have a small-time writing business, so what do I know?

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Wednesday, June 13, 2007

A flaming two-headed monster

Well, this one's out of left field. Mike Keenan's replacing Jim Playfair in Calgary.

Anyone see that coming? If so, you've got much better ESP than I do.

To say that this is an interesting situation is an understatement. With Darryl Sutter still running the show in Calgary, you've got one stubborn-headed GM who wants to mold a team in his own image. With Playfair, Sutter had his puppet -- a hand-picked man who operated under the Sutter mentality but could maybe, just maybe inspire some creativity out of the abrasively efficient Sutter troops. Playfair managed to eek more offense out of his squad (anyone else think that Kristian Huselius would have actually reached the same point total under Sutter? Didn't think so), but his squad lacked focus and motivation on the road, so much so that the home Calgary Flames and the away Calgary Flames looked like bizarro versions of each other.

Now Sutter's got Iron Mike Keenan behind the bench. Keenan, the fire-breathing monster that has found devotees (Jeremy Roenick, Chris Pronger, Joe Thornton) and legions of people who hate his guts. Keenan's headstrong and brash and not afraid to tell the GM what he thinks should be done.

So now you've got the GM who treats his job just like any Sutter going into the corners for a puck vs. the my-way-or-the-highway coach who just happens to have a history of both pulling out brilliant performances out of underachievers and driving GMs nuts. Sutter must think that his own brash stubborness can control Keenan, and maybe he's right. Or maybe, hockey just found its own version of The Surreal Life. All that's left is Jeremy Roenick to play the role of the comedic assistant coach.

And if Keenan has pull with Sutter, maybe Miikka Kiprusoff will get traded for a broken over-the-hill forward and a serviceable defenseman.

Update: Several people have pointed out one thing which I had forgotten about the relationship Keenan and Sutter had in the Blackhawks organization (as a former Blackhawks fan, I think I'd blocked that out of my memory). That's a good point; it still remains to be seen whether or not that mutual respect will affect Keenan's track record of power-grabbing or Sutter's track record of stubbornness.

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And I'm spent...

A big thanks to all of the readers who commented and emailed me questions for my interview with Doug Wilson this afternoon. I had to side-step any specifics about players and free agency (sorry Mirtle), but he gave some very thorough answers otherwise. Not too much new information for people who've read or listened to all of his media appearances since the Sharks' playoff exit, though there's one little nugget of information that will send Sharks fans into a "What if?" tizzy.

Anyways, I've got to put together a transcript of the 20-minute interview and a full article for FoxSports.com, so expect something next week on both this blog and FoxSports.

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Thursday, June 07, 2007

Attack of the Clones

The old sports adage is that you imitate whatever the champion did in order to become a better version of that. Now that the Ducks have won the Stanley Cup in a really convincing fashion -- it only takes one hand to count the number of losses Anaheim had -- are we going to see a bunch of Brian Burke/Randy Carlyle clones? In theory, the answer could be yes, but it's not nearly as easy as one might think. Sure, the Ducks have a reputation of being big, mean, defensive-minded boars. But it's much, much more than that. Here's how the Ducks won:

1) The Norris Twins: Chris Pronger. Scott Niedermayer. Think of the top five defensemen in the league. Those two guys are near the top, right? Simply put, there's no way that a team can get such a ridiculous top-two pairing like that again. The drop off in Detroit from Nicklas Lidstrom to Chris Chelios/Mathieu Schneider is considerable. Dion Phaneuf's still got to prove he's Norris-worthy over the long haul. Dan Boyle's not nearly as good as Anaheim's top two guys. Pronger and Niedermayer are masters at controlling the game: retrieving the puck, calming the situation down, and sending out a great outlet pass to start the breakout. It's a luxury that no one else is going to enjoy for a long, long time, and it's nearly impossible to duplicate.

2) Two top lines: Some teams, such as the Ottawa Senators, relied heavily on one line. On the other hand, some teams relied on interchangeable parts that went two lines deep (or in Buffalo's case, three lines deep). In the case of Anaheim, you head the speedy, smaller veterans with Teemu Selanne and Andy MacDonald on the top line and the up-and-coming dynamic duo of Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf (for simplicity's sake, let's focus on pairs rather than trios for now). This is a case of right-place-right-time synchronicity: MacDonald's unheralded enough that he's a steal at $3.33 million and Selanne's in the twilight of his career and negotiates year to year. At the same time, both Perry and Getzlaf still have one year left on their rookie contracts while contributing big-time performances. If you got all of these guys together in their prime, it'd be an immediate salary cap buster. Through smart drafting and smart acquisitions, the Ducks are able to time it so that money isn't an issue with their top two lines. Getting this kind of situation requires good development and good timing -- two very unpredictable things that can be hard to duplicate.

3) Dynamic goaltending: Jean-Sebastian Giguere's shaken off nightmare seasons and followed a great regular-season performance with a post-season one that many thought was Conn Smyth worthy. You either have goaltending like this or you don't; unfortunately, only about half the teams have true #1 goaltenders that inspire unabashed confidence -- and it's something that isn't always easily acquired when it's needed (see: Tampa Bay Lightning).

4) Intimidation: Yes, the Ducks took plenty of penalties -- but they weren't necessarily the biggest team in the league (that distinction went to the considerably softer San Jose Sharks). Size doesn't equal toughness, and the Ducks had plenty of toughness. It got them in trouble, but it also pushed softer teams off balance, creating room and opportunities.

5) Selke-worthy checking: Samuel Pahlsson, Rob Niedermayer, and Travis Moen formed one of the most effective shut-down lines in the league, but don't let the defensive magic fool you: all three players were capable of capitalizing other teams' blunders with a quick transition game. Just for posterity's sake, Pahllsson was considered for Conn Smyth and nominated for the Selke.

6) The system: While some scoff at Randy Carlyle's system as a defensive-obsessed throwback to the mid-90's New Jersey Devils, keen observers will note that the Ducks play a unique system that meshes the new and old NHL. The team moves in a unit, supports the defense, and utilizes a near-instant transition game to create offense. It doesn't hurt that the Norris Twins can both fire off tape-to-tape passes to help the breakout, but the general idea is this: defense first, then turn around and go as fast you can the instant you get the puck. It's similar to what the Carolina Hurricanes employed so successfully in 2005-2006, but it takes a unique combination of skill, speed, and discipline for an entire team to execute it.

So the question remains: will teams imitate the Anaheim Ducks next season? Looking at these list of key ingredients, the answer will have to be no. Sure, they could try, but let's look at this logically:

1) No one will be able to match Niedermayer/Pronger.
2) Some teams have as much (or more) forward depth than the Ducks. However, at least half the teams in the NHL are stranded without even ONE consistent top line.
3) Similar to #2, about half the teams in the league have a starting goalie that's not necessarily locked into his job. Hell, even J-S Giguere wasn't coming into this season, so things can change really fast for better or worse.
4) This is one area that is easily adopted. Want to be tougher? Sign some bangers-and-crashers and give them the freedom to hit at will. But you'll have to have the penalty-killing skills of the Ducks to deal with being a high-PIM team.
5) Great shut-down lines aren't exactly a rarity in the NHL but they're not easy to come by either. Consider the amount of Selke-worthy candidates in the league -- how many teams have one? How many of those teams have a pair to go with the Selke candidate that produces a natural defense-to-transition chemistry?
6) Randy Carlyle's system is picture perfect -- in theory. However, who's got the right mix of players to pull it off? Buffalo's transition game was good, but they weren't tough. San Jose had the speed but they didn't have the heart or discipline to transition that fast. Detroit only had one Norris-worthy candidate backing things up. Some teams, minus the Norris factor, have the capability of playing this style. Getting that top-line talent to transition with this intensity is another question.

My prediction? Some teams will try to shift to bigger, tougher, meaner games, but most will fail because it won't be more than the sum of its parts. Now before anyone thinks that I'm labeling the Ducks as repeat champions, it's important to note that the Anaheim style is really based on blending skill, discipline, and intensity. Skill is inherent; you either have it or you don't. Discipline and intensity, well, that comes down to leadership and coaching. As Carolina found out really quickly, it's very easy to let your discipline and intensity slide just a hair. I wouldn't be surprised if the Ducks repeated and I wouldn't be surprised if they simply couldn't keep things firing on all cylinders and wound up struggling for 8th.

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How do you celebrate with Stanley?

Congratulations to the Anaheim Ducks and all of their fans including our good buddy Earl Sleek. God damn you all, I'm jealous.

I just discovered the Stanley Cup blog on NHL.com. It's loaded with handheld video of all sorts of great moments. This is the stuff they should be broadcasting on the post-game show.

Let's all breath for a day before the post-Cup analysis begins. Bitter Sharks fans, don't forget that there's still time to submit your questions for Doug Wilson before my interview next week.
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Tuesday, June 05, 2007

We are the champions, Rawk the Puck-style

With the Ducks able to clinch the Stanley Cup tomorrow night, it only seems fitting that we bring the marathon Rawk the Puck 2007 tournament to the end. A big thanks to all of the panelists and people who participated. The voting, like most hockey blog traffic as teams got eliminated, dropped with each round, but damn it, I had fun, so the JABS Memorial Cup will be contested again next season. But for now, it's time to either inspire the Ducks to win it all or inspire the Senators to come back with a hard-fought final round between songs representing the San Jose Sharks and the New Jersey Devils.

Before we get to the play-by-play and vote tally, let's take a look at how these two teams got here:

San Jose Sharks
First Round: Dead Kennedys, Holiday in Cambodia (cause they're from the Bay Area) defeats Nashville Pussy representing the Nashville Predators. I think some people think that band's name is Paul Kariya's nickname.
Second Round: British Sea Power, Remember Me (the sea, cause we're stretching for anything ocean/sealife related) defeats Skid Row representing the Minnesota Wild. I was actually really surprised that arty indie rockers beat out awful-but-fun hair metal. What do I know?
Third Round: PJ Harvey, Down By The Water (again, ocean/sealife related) defeats New Pornographers representing the Vancouver Canucks. Another scenario where I thought Vancouver's favorite indie band would strike down Ms. Harvey, but apparently Vancouver music fans stopped reading hockey blogs once Roberto Luongo hit the golf course.

New Jersey Devils
First Round: Spinal Tap, Hell Hole (HELL, where devils come from!) defeats the Lightning Seeds representing the Tampa Bay Lightning. Soft, warm, and fuzzy Lightning Seeds didn't stand a chance against the almighty power of TAP. It's the majesty of rock!
Second Round: Bruce Springsteen, Jersey Girl defeats David Gilmour representing the New York Islanders. You either love or hate Bruce, but David's fans must have been on an acid trip when voting came and went.
Third Round: Van Halen, Running With The Devil defeats Lynyrd Skynyrd representing the Atlanta Thrashers. I should have told David Lee Roth about this -- he's just crazy enough to maybe make a guest appearance on this blog.

Tonight's matchup: The San Jose Sharks, represented by School of Fish's 3 Strange Days, vs. the New Jersey Devils, represented by Bright Eyes' Devil Town. And the puck drops...NOW!

Period 1
Chris (New Jersey): If i'm rating the 1-on-1 here, it's School of Fish. Cool, swirly tune that does rawk some - more than Bright Eyes' kinda somnolent drowse. But Rawk the Puck! is about the bench too, and here's what we have: Devils (Springsteen, a true icon; Van Halen, a joke; Spinal Tap, a mockumental joke; and now Bright Eyes, a decent though overhyped indie star) against Sharks (British Sea Power, a great band still building a catalogue; PJ Harvey, culty and not my cup; Dead Kennedys, a cult act I do get and quite like, but geez they make me feel old; and now School of Fish, one-album wonders cut down in their prime).

So the vote goes to the Devils - last year's Rawk the Puck! champs defend. Sharks just don't have the depth to match the Boss and the Tap.

Sherry (San Jose Sharks): Somewhat shamefully, I do enjoy a couple of songs by Bright Eyes but "Devil Town" isn't one of them. It makes it all the more easier to vote for School of Fish, since everytime I see Conor Oberst and his pretentious haircut, most of what I hear coming out of his mouth is "WHINE, WHINE, WHINE"

Period 2
Carla (New Jersey Devils): Well, for me, the finals turn out to be pretty anticlimactic. 'Cause there's just no beating Bright Eyes' cover of Daniel Johnston's "Devil Town". It wins (4 sets of clapping-) hands down. Not just for the weird innocence of Johnston's lyrics and melody, but for Bright Eyes' adaptation of it, including that truly great squeally guitar (or is it a violin?) bridge a minute and a half into it--wow, that's sweet. Plus, that's a righteously groovy video. Contrariwise, I don't get the appeal of the School of Fish selection. Meh, it sounds like a million other songs. As far as I'm concerned, hand the JABS Memorial Cup to Jersey, Mike. (I'd wear gloves, though, if I were you. I suspect Chris didn't wash the damned thing before he gave it to you.)

Greg (San Jose Sharks): Bright Eyes -- this is pleasant enough, but... the song never really seems to get going. Kind of like the Devils! Har! Ok, that didn't make any sense... the School of Fish song, meanwhile, is good ol' one-hit-wonder '90s stuff. The kind of band that sounds great on one song, then it turns out everything else on the album sounds like a weaker version of the same thing. (Kind of like the Shar.... oh, never mind.) In the end, neither team brings their a-game, but...SHARKS WIN

Third Period
Mike (San Jose Sharks): Conor Oberst had a brief brief brief brief brief stint with The Faint, and that should in theory put him past his whiny folk front now. But, it's got no effect against the awesomeness of School of Fish. Ok, actually, I can't say School of Fish is that awesome cause they're really not. But I'm still mourning the Sharks and their stupid stupid stupid blown opportunity. So I'm going to vote for the Sharks because I am stupidly loyal to the end.

Reader vote: Bright Eyes with a whopping two votes (Conor's internet connection must have been down) and School of fish with seven votes.

Your final score:
New Jersey Devils: 2 + 2 = 4
San Jose Sharks: 7 + 3 = 10

The Sharks can't hold on to a lead in real life, but when it comes to Rawking the Puck, they are the champions! And you know what? I bet Mark Smith actually knows who all of these bands are! In honor of Mark and the Sharks, here's a clip of Mark's band going all aboriginal RAWK on you! You think he smokes a lot of pot?



Now that the important championship is over and done with, I suppose we should prepare for game 5, huh?

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Monday, June 04, 2007

Quick thoughts on Don Cherry's NBC debut

Don Cherry's much ballyhooed debut was tonight. Now, I've got Center Ice, so seeing him for me isn't that much of a novelty even though I'm American. In fact, normally I can't stand him on Hockey Night In Canada (Satellite Hotstove's much more entertaining in my opinion), but having him on with Brett Hull certainly made for a much more interesting dynamic. Instead of one ranting and raving lunatic with a quiet straight man (Ron MacLean), we had Bill Clement watching idly by as Cherry and Hull took turns ranting and raving -- and sometimes while the other person was talking -- and giving each other the occasional potshot.

You know what? I know it's just a little thing, but I stay tuned the whole time Cherry and Hull were on there -- unlike when I watch Hockey Night In Canada. The big difference to me was the fact that rather than give Cherry a straight man, you had someone who was equally as opinionated and outspoken in Hull that only agreed with about half of the stuff Cherry had to say. As any writer or storyteller can tell you, conflict breeds entertainment, and just by having two animated guys willing to speak their mind -- in agreement or disagreement -- made it a bazillion times more entertaining than Keith Jones and Brian Engblom rambling through Generic Hockey Analysis 101.

Is the Don Cherry experiment a success? I have no idea what NBC execs thought about his lecture on fighting and TV ratings, and I certainly only agreed with about 25% of what Cherry said, but watching him and Hull bounce off each other made it pretty entertaining. I think the act would wear thin every week, but it'd certainly be a nice treat to have every now and then (and HNIC viewers should get the same thing by having Hull on Coach's Corner every now and then).

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Friday, June 01, 2007

Your token rumor of the day: Sheldon Souray

In between Ducks victories, um, Cup final games, the usual trade and free agency rumors are starting to pop up. On XM's Hockey This Morning, Mike Bossy threw another log on to the fire by reporting that Montreal's supposed offer to Sheldon Souray was around the $4 million mark.

If that's the case, I don't even know why Montreal bothered other than to save face with their fans by saying they at least TRIED. In reality, Souray may be worth that much considering what a defensive liability he is (remember when Sandis Ozolinsh was considered just a fourth forward?), but stats = money in pro sports, and any team desperate enough has got to think that it'll be worth at least 500k more than Markov because of Souray's 19 power play goals.

Souray's a bit of a gamble for any team involved; sure, most of the Habs players, including Saku Koivu and Michael Ryder, had atrocious +/- ratings. However, when you look at the defensemen, it stacks up like this:

Mike Komisarek +7
Andrei Markov +2
Mark Streit -5
Francis Bouillon -10
Mathieu Dandenault -8
Sheldon Souray -28

Souray's a power play specialist (48 of his 64 points were on the man advantage) and a thrill-a-minute (the bad way) at even strength. Andrei Markov's $5.75 million average is overpaid, but I'd have a tough time giving the same money or more to a guy like Souray who only brings value to special teams UNLESS you have a roster commited to team defense and you can pair Souray with a steady stay-at-home guy who allows Souray to play rover. If that's the case, Souray can bring his worth as a boost to suffering power plays.

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