Dany Heatley < Sidney Crosby

(Don't you just love my use of math symbols in the post title?)

TSN has a report about how Dany Heatley's apparently seeking a cool $8.5 million extension. Of course, these types of numbers are often thrown around for bargaining posture, but still, I thought we might want to do a little sanity check here. Now, don't get me wrong -- Dany Heatley's one of the top players in the game. However, the measuring stick really has been set by Sidney Crosby's extension with a cap-hit average of $8.7 million per season (I know, I know, Crosby took a "below market value" extension but still, he's essentially the highest-average paid player in the league), and I don't know about you guys, but Dany Heatley's still a cut below Crosby and a few other players.

However, I think the Daniel Briere/Chris Drury/Scott Gomez contracts have thrown everything out of whack. Blame the Rangers and Flyers -- is it 1997 again? Let's take a look at some stats:

Dany Heatley, age 26

Year	Team	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-
2005-06	OTT	82	50	53	103	29
2006-07	OTT	82	50	55	105	31

Here are some players and salaries that say Heatley's asking for too much.

Sidney Crosby, age 20, average $8.7 million

Year	Team	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-
2005-06	PIT	81	39	63	102	-1
2006-07	PIT	79	36	84	120	10

Joe Thornton, age 28, average $7.2 million

2005-06	BOS	23	9	24	33	0
2005-06	SJ	58	20	72	92	31
2006-07	SJ	82	22	92	114	24

Vincent Lecavalier, age 27, average $6.875 million

2005-06	TB	80	35	40	75	0
2006-07	TB	82	52	56	108	2

Now, each of these players comes with a different contract extension. Crosby and Thornton signed in the offseason while Lecavalier was from a few years back. Thornton took one of those infamous hometown discounts to stay in San Jose while Lecavalier's contract was a monster at the time -- and now it looks modest. Factoring in current-season economics/inflation and the players considered here, I'd say Heatley's worth $7.5 million over a long-term deal.

However, there certainly are arguments for what Heatley is asking for. Check out these players:

Brad Richards, age 27, average $7.8 million

Year	Team	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-
2003-04	TB	82	26	53	79	14
2005-06	TB	82	23	68	91	0
2006-07	TB	82	25	45	70	-19

Scott Gomez, age 27, average $7.35 million

Year	Team	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-
2003-04	NJ	80	14	56	70	18
2005-06	NJ	82	33	51	84	8
2006-07	NJ	72	13	47	60	7

Chris Drury, age 30, average $7.1 million

Year	Team	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-
2003-04	BUF	76	18	35	53	8
2005-06	BUF	81	30	37	67	-11
2006-07	BUF	77	37	32	69	1

Looking at those guys, if you get $7 million for averaging about 70 points a year, doesn't that make Heatley worth $8.5 million?

Now Gary Bettman has made the argument that this sort of apparent salary inflation isn't anything to worry about because revenues are growing with the inflated salaries and there is a built-in mechanism to control escalation from going bonkers (as if it hasn't already). Yes, the escrow mechanism prevents things from growing out of control in a way similar to the late 90's, but when you think about how contracts are just getting bandied about now like it's Bob Barker's return to The Price Is Right, well, $8 million bucks doesn't buy what it used to now, does it?

In any case, if Heatley signs a 5 or 6-year deal with the Sens, I'm guessing it'll average at $8 million a year.